Ashtāvakra Geetha (अष्टावक्र गीता)
Obeisance to Lord Ganesha and Guru Parashara on this day of 20-Sep-2022 (Mangala 29-Bhadra-1944 Saka Calendar) published on 26-Sep (Sarat Padyami)
Danyavadaha to my guru's who have opened my view..Dr Sudhir Bhaskar (cybernetics/re-engineering, IIT/IIM), Prof V.E.Ramamoorthy (cost prediction/optimization, ex-IFMR, Chennai), David Doyle (global (dimensional) risk, CRO/CAE, ex-SwissRe, QIA SWF entity).
Grounding in Economics (Doyens): Prof Vishwanath Pandit (Macro / Delhi School of Economics), Dr Kishore (Rural/Micro)
Inspired by: Acharya Chanakya's (of Takshasila Gurukul) Arthashastra (translated by R.Shamashastry), Sri Devendra Chaturvedi (Argha Martand)
Due to the current turmoil across the world on multiple factors
1 - Government stability and instability - instigated by internal and external factors by the nation state factors
2 - The currency game which might come to an end because of the global standard currencies which could not keep up the promise of having a good solid backing of how they print their currencies and how they use them;
3 - Health pandemic..
--smaller consequences..people are somehow trying to respect or at least have a sense for nature, remote working, an ability to feel things which are more realistic ..meaning nature, food, good environment, good/holistic life
4- Changing global world order or polarity..multiple sections or groups are going to come up ..ability to challenge the eco-system meaning US world order, US fines/embargoes/crazy decisions ..
People are now some how waking up to say Look there is some thing that you are doing you are not unsure of yourself but seem to punish the whole world...
So a sudden uprising which has been noticed...world over who ever has
- fertile land, or
- resources under the land (mines) or
- people above the land which means brain power, manpower, scientists, and who can also produce the resources from under the land (which are mined or is agriculture)..
these seem to be valued than the paper currencies.
We have seen during Corona how the established world order broke loose...people who are supposed to supply medicine did not supply either within their neighborhood (within Asia or within EU or else where)..so called global leaders US/UK they hoarded all the vaccines/materials..they seem to kill anybody against them and they forced their vaccines without realistic testing..)
So it was always about money ..it was not about Humanity...it's hogwash..so much for them taking the leadership.
So in this hazy transformatory journey..
we see certain economies which have parameters described above will stand good in the long run...happens to be Southern America, Southern part of Africa, Asia (plains/ Himalayas (my favourite Kingdom of Bhutan) / plateaus), may be Russia.
Commodities will suddenly become scare because no body wants to produce everybody wants to trade in the commodities so called..make money (the virtual money)..do not have actual production...even if they have it will be GMO (unworthy food to eat) in guise of poverty remediation and open system/world order...they just destroyed established Nature's world order..
As the dust settles in, this is what will rule.
Coming back to context of India (Bhārata) ..in this order we see
- countries going down
- their currencies being depreciated.
Next step pertaining to India is ..there is lot of impetus because..it is the underdog I would call it...constantly subjugated for the last (few) hundred years...but now rising upto the occasion..
The 1st happens to be
- Spirit of nationalism..pro-nature, pro-nation, (world) humanity for instance
This is an approach that they have taken..With that rapid ramp up of focus on agriculture, on mining and thirdly people development...the 3 aspects we are look at...along with good established system which seems to be fair to play across the world not by the might of it...just by goodness with reasonable profits..
example:
- compared to Visa/Mastercard Vs NPCI (aka Rupay/UPI)
- compared to Amazon might Vs Etsy.com (US based??) or ONDC
There is a value for money relationship and India seems to be a sustainable partner..be it for Design, for Production, running global centres of excellence for world wide clients...it is a dependable partner...
With that in mind..we basically see some sectors...
the private sector is good...efficient...entrepreneurial all that ...blah blah..
But with the targets on sales / pressure..there is a greed which sets in...frauds...
1st - PSU sector is like a dark horse..not great but dependable...slow..if you just remove the lethargy (blech :-)) and native corruption..this sector will be great..this is one sector we see will rise
2nd - Sector on ESG is very slow but will move
3rd - Commodities..some production commodities will move up..slowly but surely because this is physical thing..finally when hell breaks loose..you need a physical commodity...land/gold/food anything...could be be items...they will start ruling/catching peoples attention..
Risk reward equation we are going to see...some risks we have explained ..some of them can present investment opportunities...may be Aerospace & Defence sector worldwide, the manufacturing bases moving to India after 2-3-4 hops across the world in the last hundred years..its another good opportunity to look at...So it is a global play of macro vs micro specifically...
This is what we probably look at...some bets I would say opportunities which are coming up here could be on the
- currency front vis a vis global currencies or US dollar.
- commodity play
- regular government owned infrastructure services
in near future...
I think valuations ..are some time controlled by market players...because say they want consistent supply of silver for production they will just cut down the prices..
even the copper was versatile metal all the while...just subjugated on pricing front..
it is like price of diamonds shooting up..but there are tonnes of diamonds available...artificial/natural..(one cannot differentiate between these two types)...they hoard the prices of commodities...
we have seen 2-3 opportunities in Indian sector...
in India we specifically look at 3 classes
- Startups
- Unlisted private entities
- Listed world (SME or normal entities...across equities/bonds/commodities/derivatives..for delivery or not for delivery/only trading...)
Some of the bets coming up...we suggest/view...
- quarterly
- yearly
- 3 years
- 8 years
depending on ones appetite focusing on ...
generally any company/startup you would look at you want to see
- sustained revenue
- value to the whole industry aka catalyst
- phataka...unicorn..product approach...you invest a lot to get out a silver bullet..the one once exploded might kill the existing eco-system or might build a new eco-system or might shake existing order in the world..
thats the way it is said...Middle East said Hell with the Dollar..we will price it in our local currencies..or when Russia said we will have gold barter with India..Hell with SWIFT as we embrace NPCI/Rupay..so the established rules or power centre start breaking loose...
The Story conveyed publicly on Ukraine is a hogwash..real news is something else..Bio-weapons...ICJ spoke about it..media is censored/have their right to remain silent :-) why because it impinges their so called narrative (of years)... it is just that they are creating loudest noise...
much like IP regime across the world...first guy who claims..to have discovered/invented/researched?? is granted an IP without checking ..whether that is a public knowledge ..or there is something contravening outside their database ..(they just check their database).....reality is far removed....
we are trying have a unique view (say 0.000001%) at Anvikshiki ..we like to look at views..which are catastrophic (if materialised) ..no harm meant if our predictions dont come True.
It is like super hedging at the far end of the tail..as we call it..
So with this in mind, there are some opportunities and risks that can be presented or looked at
Writer/Author: Kumar S
Standard Disclaimer: Authors views are personal nature
PS: English is a language for profession or living...not my mother tongue...These views are better expressed in ones own mother tongue
